Video of Brea Pension Event

Watch the video of our May 12 pension event with Pete Constant and Truong Bui from the Reason Foundation's Pension Integrity Project, read their report and presentation focused on the City of Brea, and share them with your friends!

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  • Tallie Jones
    commented 2016-05-20 07:35:08 -0700
    good point on the actuarial assumptions. there are 12 that you mentioned. each of those factors can take on multiple values. so the chosen scenario represents one scenario of many many scenarios. the probability of this one scenario happening is astronomical non-plausible.

    pretend each factor has only 2 options (in reality this number is much much higher, but this will demonstrate the ludicrous nature of actuarial practice) the probability of that one scenario becoming a reality is 1 in 2 to the twelth power, or 1 in 4,096 change of that scenario happening. if there are 3 options for each factor, that probability goes to 1 in 531,441. Imagine if we get realistic and say there are 10 or 15 options or more for each scenario, how high the probabilities are against this one scenario happening.

    And this one scenario is used to set policy. absurd.